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pk10高手论坛交流区:中国经济比印度经济要好吗?

时间:2018/4/25 11:32:53  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:Is China economy better than Indian economy?(中国经济比印度经济要好吗?)https://www.quora.com/Is-China-economy-better-than-Indian-economy Sumit Singh Bar...


Is China economy better than Indian economy?(中国经济比印度经济要好吗?)https://www.quora.com/Is-China-economy-better-than-Indian-economy Sumit Singh Barhat M.A from Loyola College ChennaiTamil Nadu (2016),来自泰米尔纳德邦钦奈Loyola学院的硕士学位(2016),三哥。 : Undoubtedly let us look at the various indicators to understand this better
GDP :
China :11 $ Trillion (Dec 2016 ) India :2 $Trillion
GDP Per Capita at PPP
China :13571 $ ; India :5730 $
Share of World Trade
China :13.8% ; India : 2 %
Ease of Doing business rankings
China :78th ; India :130th
HDI rankings
China :90th ; India 131st
Population below poverty line :
China:1.9% ; India :21.2 % (2013 )
I can quote many such indicators where China is way ahead of India.
India’s biggest strength is the demographic dividend which if she doesn ’t make use of before 2030 can turn in to an demographic disaster .
India has a lot of potential to grow if she grows at 8% an average for the next 30 yrs India can be a 25 $ trillion Economy (deducting 8 trillion for economic shocks) in the next 30 yrs.
毫无疑问,让我们看看各种指标来更好地理解这一点:
国内生产总值 GDP:
中国:11万亿美元(2016年)印度:2万亿美元
人均GDP
中国:13571美元;印度:5730美元
世界贸易份额
中国:13.8%;印度:2%
投资环境排名
中国:第七十八;印度:第一百三十
人类发展指数排名
中国:第九十;印度第一百三十一
贫困线以下人口:
中国:1.9%;印度:21.2%(2013)
我可以引用许多这样的指标来说明中国在印度领先的地方。
印度最大的力量是人口红利,如果她在2030之前没有利用人口红利,那么它就会进入人口灾难。
印度有许多增长潜力,如果未来30年她平均增长8%,印度将在未来30年内实现25万亿美元的经济(经济冲击中扣除八万亿美元)。
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Mathew Cherian I watch China as they drive the World Economy Answered Dec 18   Originally Answered: Is the China economy better than that of India?   Every economy whether good or bad is an individual opinion. If I perceptively and wisely live in any economy then it is good for me otherwise it is a nemesis for me.
It is what individual prefers and trade-off that creates his day. If you make right choices based on what is available and what is to be done with it in what way then the results fulfills you and you consider that economy is good.
If you are willing to trade-off mental happiness for material happiness then capitalists economies are good otherwise bad. It goes on like that.
马修·Cherian:中国是推到世界经济发展的主要动力,所以我更看好中国。 :每个经济体无论好坏都是相对于个人主观观点。如果我选择生活在任何经济中,那么它对我是有利的,否则它是我的克星。
正是因为每个人的喜欢喝不喜欢创造他的生活。如果你根据现状做出正确的选择,并且改变他,那么结果就会满足你,你就会觉得这个经济体对你是好的。
如果你愿意为物质幸福而交换精神幸福,那么资本家经济是好的,否则就不好。继续。
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Sreekrishna Koppuravuri(三哥)
In economic parameters China is better than India.
China has certain advantages. It can take decisions regarding projects quickly. They have financial muscle. They can mobilize labor very quickly. But this type of development is not at all good. People suffer from pollution. All natural resources would get depleted because of manufacturing and supplying to the whole world. People have to work hard. On the other hand American development style is good. They invest in industries located at China and reap good profits. Unfortunately governments create that Chinese type of development is good. Many people also believe in it.
Sreekrishna Koppuravuri。 在经济参数上,中国比印度好。
中国有一定的优势。它可以快速做出有关项目的决策。他们有财力。他们可以很快调动劳动力。但是,这种发展并不好,人们遭受污染。所有的自然资源都会因制造和供应而全部耗尽。人们必须努力工作。另一方面,美国的发展风格很好。他们在中国投资并获得丰厚的利润。不幸的是,中国政府创造的模式是有效的。许多人也相信它。
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Ashish Bhatt Research Scholar(phd) at B V Patel Pharmaceutical and Education Research Centre:Ashish 巴哈特B V帕特尔医药和教育研究中心研究博士(帕特尔西印度高种姓) Yes obviously. Chineese economy is more liberal and open. There is less RED TAPE than what india have. Their GDP is better than india but most importantly HDI AMD INFRASTRUCTURE OF CHINA IS BETTER THAN INDIA   显然是中国,他们经济更加自由化和开放。繁文缛节比印度少得多。他们的gdp比印度好,但最重要的是,但最重要的是中国的人类发展指数,电子产品和基础设施都比印度好。
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… Anonymous(匿名回答) To be frank Yes
First let me make it clear that India would never gonna beat China in living standards.
China’s GDP is USD 11.4 trillion (2016; IMF). India’s GDP is USD 2.25 trillion (2016; IMF). These economies are in no way comparable. The Chinese economy is more than 5 times larger. China’s GDP per capita stands at USD 8260 and that of India at USD 1718. China’s population (1.37 billion) and the population of India (1.34 billion) are comparable — but China is five times richer on a per capita basis.
Based on these figures India will add USD 129 in economic output on a per capita basis if it grows at a pace of 7.5%. Similarly if China grows by 6.3% its output will increase by USD 520 per capita.
Those who say that India is home to the world’s largest economic growth have not even done primary school math on the situation. India actually needs to grow at more than 30% to outpace China in absolute terms per capita.
It helps to play around with the numbers cited above to understand how erroneous expectations have been. If one assumes that India continues to grow at a rate of 7.5% and China at a rate of 6.3% from here on out it will take 127 years before India’s per capita growth will actually begin to exceed China’s.
The problem is that many people confuse “rate of growth” with actual “growth.” They blithely assume that a higher growth rate means greater growth. They assume that a decline in the growth rate is a decline in growth. Perhaps people simply see what they want to see as a result of their ideological preferences. China and India history of real GDP expansion since 1980
In the early 1980s India was richer on a per capita basis than China — India’s population was much smaller than China’s but its GDP was of similar size.
If one pores over statements released by international institutions and media reports published over the past 36 years it was consistently claimed that while India would be slow in getting to this point it would eventually outpace China.
Not only did this not happen but as demonstrated above by now it looks as though it will be virtually impossible for India to outpace China. One should pause to reflect on why so many have been so consistently wrong about India.
The Sacred Cow of Democracy
One of the major reasons why the West its institutions and the upper and middle classes prefer India over China is that India follows the western religion of democracy. They refuse to see that democracy tends not to work in poor countries (it is debatable whether it worked in the West).
One could well say that by the time democracy was introduced in the West particularly in its present form in which everyone has the right to vote the West had already reached its intellectual peak. A painting purporting to show the assembly of ancient Athens. The city-state became democratic around 500 BC – it was the first known experiment in democracy. However only adult male Athenian citizens who had completed their military training had the right to vote. Slaves freed slaves children women and foreigners residents were excluded.
The history of democracy’s achievements in the non-western world is particularly bad. Africa the Middle East South East Asia and most of South America are riddled with countries that embraced democracy and almost immediately took a turn for the worse. In fact I cannot think of a single country in these regions that improved after adopting democracy. Nepal East Timor and PNG are vivid recent examples.
Non-western countries which have performed better in terms of economic growth and social indexes improved during time periods in which they were for all practical purposes not democratic. To name a few: Lee Kuan Yew’s Singapore British and now Chinese Hong Kong Park Chung-hee’s South Korea Pinochet’s Chile and Chiang’s Taiwan.
In India democracy never worked but who need facts when emotions need to be satisfied? If Africa were a country India would be worse off in terms of virtually every economic and social index on per capita basis. As a proportion of India’s population the country’s people are among the world’s poorest most diseased wretched and malnourished.
48% of Indians don’t even have access to toilets. Similar percentages of India’s population live without electricity water and other basic amenities. To put this number into perspective again: at a per capita GDP of USD 1718 India is poorer than Sudan the Republic of Congo Laos Papua New Guinea and many other countries not exactly known for their great wealth.
It is often claimed that India has the largest English speaking population outside the western world. This was true in the past but it is likely no longer true. China has brought in a large number of native speakers from Canada the UK and the US to teach English to its students. It seems very likely that there are now more English speakers in China than there are in India – and they speak better English. Population growth and demographics of India incl. projection
India certainly appears to be in an advantageous position in terms of demographics. While China’s society is aging and the number of young people is declining more than 50% of Indians are below the age of 29. Alas this is likely to turn into a liability as the vast majority of them are unskilled and incapable of participating in the modern economy.
There is a net increase of 12 million Indians joining the workforce every year but India continues to exhibit job-less growth. While their expectations are increasing — for they all watch American TV — they lack wealth-generating capabilities. As a result crime is on the rise.
India’s institutions are often highlighted as the reason for the country’s superiority over China or other non-democratic systems. The reality is that in the last 70 years Indians have systematically destroyed the institutions left by the British. Today’s judiciary legislature and executive are not comparable.
Today none of these institutions are run for the benefit of the country’s citizens. They operate for the glorification of the State in which citizens are mere cogs. These institutions have mutated on account of India’s underlying tribalism totalitarian tendencies.
Unless one is a criminal one doesn’t visit a police station in India. The tyranny of the police up to and including killing innocent people in fake encounters has a long history. Court cases can drag on for decades. Regulations and laws are mere pieces of paper with decisions sold to the largest bidder.
It is virtually impossible to get anything done in India without a bribe. Worse people must grovel and humiliate themselves in front of public servants to get what is rightfully theirs.
Readers will do themselves a service by challenging themselves to find out whether democracy really has any connection with improved governance stronger institutions of liberty or faster economic growth.
India’s Problems Have Deep Roots
India is an extremely irrational superstitious and tribal country. The concept of reason is mainly conspicuous by its absence in much of India. India was long associated with Britain and has imported western institutions ways of living technology etc. over the last 200-300 years but has failed to import the concept of reason.
The same could be said for Africa the Middle East rest of South Asia and most of South America. But we will stick with India here. Without the concept of reason people can have no understanding of the rule of law of fairness or simply of what is right or wrong.
They can only think in terms of might is right street-smartness and political connections. Such a society cannot have any understanding of the principles of the ten commandments or have respect for the individual and liberty.
Assimilating the concept of reason hasn’t happened in the last 200-300 years. In Europe it took about 2000 years after it was discovered by Roman philosphers. Could it take another millennium or more before India’s society will be able to assimilate the concept of reason?
In the last three decades India’s economy has grown but most of this growth can be attributed to significantly improved access to the western world and its technology through the new medium of internet and cheap telephony. The low-hanging fruit from this have been plucked and India is starting to show signs of stagnation.
While India grew economically government grew at an even faster rate. People and corporations took on debt faster than they could repay it. They imported the lifestyle and a generous helping of consumerism from the West mostly its entertainment aspects. Reason fell by the wayside.
All evidence indicates that Indians were actually disincentivized from developing critical thinking creativity and reasoning skills. Why bother when one could become rich without them?
Indian manufacturing plants or offices including those in the private sector are chaotic wasteful and incapable of planning and following a system as a result. Labor costs appear cheap but India’s chaos ensures low productivity.
Given a chance Indian companies prefer to move their factories to China. Indian cities and villages are packed with Chinese good even very basic ones.
What Will India’s Future be Like?
It shouldn’t be too difficult to abandon the idea that India will be the next China. India’s much-celebrated growth of 7.5% is too low to make any real impact on the world economy. But even this is under massive threat once considers the country’s institutional and cultural problems.
As mentioned earlier the low-hanging fruit from importing western technology have been plucked by now. India has failed to cultivate critical thinking and hence the ability to develop its own technology.
India has been a massive beneficiary of the fall in oil price as oil is by far its biggest import. This was a one-off gain a benefit for growth that will trail off again. Indian exports are already showing signs of strain and are falling partly losing out to other countries which continue to improve their competitiveness such as China and the Philippines. Growth in Indian exports has turned negative in early 2015 – click to enlarge.
Members of India’s middle class have become remarkably arrogant thinking that there must be something special about them that made them so much richer but they were merely lucky beneficiaries of western technology. This arrogance has boosted nationalism which is spreading like wildfire.
In a society lacking in rationality nationalism is not perceived to be about human values but is a mere geographical tribal concept. Hindutava (Hindu-nationalism) has been on the rise. The BJP the party representing this ideology has come to power two and half years ago with Narendra Modi as the prime minister.
Under Modi’s reign as the institutions which the British left continue to get destroyed liberties are falling taxes are going up without any improvements in public service and the regulatory burden has increased significantly. The country is getting increasingly centralized as well and brought under Modi’s command. He believes he has to do more of all these things to ensure India remains on a path to growth. This is a recipe for disaster.
On 8th November 2016 Modi announced a ban on banknotes affecting 86% of the monetary value of currency in circulation. This has been another example of his dictatorial policies as the decision was not even discussed by his own cabinet. Even the central bank did not know about the ban until the very last moment.
Readers should reflect on the fact that Modi took a decision crippling the economy by robbing it of its life-blood depriving people of the medium of exchange they needed for performing transactions without worrying in the least about checks and balances.
Conclusion
It should be easy to see that India is not the next China. There is no point in holding out much hope for India. Rather it is ever easier to conclude that it is on the way to becoming the next banana republic similar to neighboring countries such as Pakistan Bangladesh Myanmar or Nepal. Intellectuals should engage in some self-reflection on why they have been consistently wrong about India. It is China that exhibits continued economic and social growth. China keeps coming out with innovative products. In China’s book shops one can find Chinese translations of many of the best foreign books. I’m worried that India could rapidly become a backwater by comparison.   匿名: 坦率地说,是的
首先让我明确一点,印度决不会在生活水平上击败中国。
中国的国内生产总值为11.4万亿美元(2016年;国际货币基金结果)。印度的国内生产总值为2.25万亿美元(2016年;国际货币基金结果)。这经济没有任何可比性。中国经济总量超过印度的5倍。中国人均国内生产总值为8260美元,印度为1718美元。中国的人口(13.7亿)和印度的人口(13.4亿)具有可比性 - 但中国的人均收入是印度人口的五倍。
利用上面提到的数字来理解预期是多么的错误是很有帮助的。如果假设印度继续以7.5%的速度增长,从现在起中国以6.3%的速度增长,那么印度的人均增长将需要127年的时间才能真正开始超过中国。
问题是,许多人把“增长率”与实际“增长”混为一谈。他们兴高采烈地认为,更高的增长率意味着更大的增长。他们认为增长率的下降就是增长的下降。也许人们只是因为他们的意识形态偏好而看到了他们想看到的东西 中国和印度,1980以来实际gdp增长的历史
20世纪80年代初,印度的人均财富比中国富裕--印度的人口比中国少得多,但印度的GDP规模与中国相当。
如果人们对过去36年来国际机构发表的声明和媒体报道不屑一顾,人们就会一直声称,尽管印度在这一点上进展缓慢,但最终将超过中国。
这不仅没有发生,而且如上文所示,到目前为止,印度似乎几乎不可能超过中国。人们应该停下来思考一下,为什么这么多人对印度的看法一直是错误的。
民主的神圣奶牛
西方、其体制以及中上阶层之所以偏爱印度而非中国的主要原因之一是,印度信奉西方的民主宗教。他们拒绝看到民主在贫穷国家不起作用(这在西方是否有效是值得商榷的)。
可以说,在西方推行民主的时候,特别是以现在的形式,每个人都有投票权,西方已经达到了知识的顶峰。 一幅旨在展示古代雅典集会的画。这个城邦在公元前500年左右实现了民主,这是第一个已知的民主实验。然而,只有完成军事训练的成年雅典男性公民才有权投票。奴隶、被释放的奴隶、儿童、妇女和外国人被排除在外。
民主在非西方世界的成就尤其糟糕。非洲、中东、东南亚和南美洲大部分地区到处都是拥护民主的国家,而且几乎立即变得更加糟糕。事实上,我想不出这些地区有哪个国家在实行民主后有所改善。尼泊尔、东帝汶和巴布亚新几内亚是最近的生动例子。
在经济增长和社会指数方面表现较好的非西方国家在所有实际目的上都有所改善,而不是民主。举几个例子:李光耀的新加坡、英国和现在的中国香港、朴正熙的韩国、皮诺切特的智利和蒋介石的台湾。
在印度,民主从来不起作用,但当情绪需要满足时,谁需要事实呢?如果非洲是一个国家,印度的人均经济和社会指数几乎都会更差。作为印度人口的一部分,印度人民是世界上最贫穷、疾病最严重、最可怜和营养不良的国家之一。
48%的印度人甚至连厕所都没有。同样比例的印度人口没有电、水和其他基本生活设施。重新审视这一数字:印度人均国内生产总值为1,718美元,比苏丹、刚果共和国、老挝、巴布亚新几内亚和其他许多不太出名的国家贫穷。
人们常说印度是除西方世界以外讲英语的人口最多的国家。这在过去是真实的,但很可能不再是真的。中国从加拿大、英国和美国引进了大量以英语为母语的学生。现在中国讲英语的人似乎比印度多,而且他们的英语说得更好。 印度人口增长和人口统计,包括预测
就人口统计而言,印度显然处于有利地位。随着中国社会的老龄化和年轻人数量的下降,超过50%的印度人年龄在29岁以下。唉,这很可能变成一种负担,因为他们中的绝大多数都是不熟练的,没有能力参与现代经济。
每年净增加1200万印度人的就业人数,但印度继续出现就业减少的增长。尽管他们的期望越来越高--因为他们都在看美国电视--但他们缺乏创造财富的能力。因此,犯罪率在上升。
印度的体制往往被强调为该国优于中国或其他非民主制度的原因。事实是,在过去的70年里,印度人有系统地摧毁了英国留下的机构。今天的司法、立法和行政是不可比拟的。
今天,这些机构中没有一个是为了国家公民的利益而运作的。它们的运作是为了美化国家,在国家中,公民只是齿轮。由于印度潜在的部落主义极权主义倾向,这些机构发生了变异。
除非一个人是罪犯,否则他不会去印度的警察局。警察的暴政,甚至包括在虚假的遭遇中杀害无辜的人,有着悠久的历史。法庭案件可能会拖上几十年。条例和法律只是一张纸,并将决策出售给最大的竞标者。
几乎不可能在没有贿赂的情况下在印度完成任何事情。更糟糕的是,人们必须在公务员面前卑躬屈膝,屈辱自己,才能得到他们应得的东西。
读者将通过挑战自己来了解民主是否真的与改善治理、加强自由制度或更快的经济增长有任何联系,从而为自己服务。
印度问题深入人心
印度是一个极其不理性、迷信和部落的国家。理性的概念主要表现在印度大部分地区缺乏理性。在过去的200-300年里,印度一直与英国联系在一起,并引进了西方的制度、生活方式、技术等,但却没有引入理性的概念。
非洲、中东、南亚其他地区和南美洲大部分地区也是如此。但我们会坚持印度的立场。没有理性的概念,人们就无法理解法治、公平,或简单地理解什么是对的,什么是错的。
他们只能从强权、街头智慧和政治关系的角度来思考。这样的社会不能理解十诫的原则,也不能尊重个人和自由。
吸收理性的概念在过去的200-300年里没有发生过.在欧洲,罗马人发现它花了大约2,000年的时间。印度社会是否还需要一千年或更长的时间才能吸收理性的概念呢?
在过去30年里,印度经济有所增长,但大部分增长可归因于通过互联网和廉价电话这一新媒体获得的西方世界及其技术的显著改善。由此产生的易取得的果实已被摘下,印度正开始显现出停滞的迹象。
虽然印度经济增长,但政府的增长速度更快。人们和公司承担债务的速度快于他们偿还债务的速度。他们从西方引进了生活方式和慷慨的消费主义,主要是在娱乐方面。理智被抛在了一边。
所有证据都表明,印度人实际上在发展批判性思维、创造力和推理技能方面受到了抑制。否则为什么没有人可以变得富有呢?
印度的制造厂或办事处,包括私营部门的工厂或办事处都是混乱、浪费,无法规范。劳动力成本似乎很低,但印度的混乱确保了低生产率。
如果有机会,印度公司更愿意将工厂迁往中国。印度的城市和村庄挤满了中国的商品,甚至是非常基本的商品。
印度的未来会是什么样子?
放弃印度将成为下一个中国的想法应该不难。印度7.5%的著名增长率太低,无法对世界经济产生任何实际影响。但即便如此,一旦考虑到该国的体制和文化问题,也将面临巨大的威胁。
如前所述,从进口西方技术中摘下的低垂果实到现在已经被采摘了.印度没有培养批判性思维,因此也没有发展自己的技术。
印度一直是油价下跌的巨大受益者,因为石油是其最大的进口。这是一次过的收益,对经济增长有利,而且还会继续下去.印度的出口已经显示出紧张的迹象,而且正在下降,在一定程度上输给了继续提高竞争力的其他国家,如中国和菲律宾 印度出口的增长在2015年初转为负增长
印度中产阶级的成员变得异常傲慢,他们认为他们一定有什么特别的东西让他们变得如此富有,但他们只是西方技术的幸运受益者。这种傲慢助长了民族主义,民族主义正在像野火一样蔓延。
在一个缺乏理性的社会里,民族主义被认为不是关于人类价值的,而仅仅是一个地理、部落的概念。印度支那(印度教-民族主义)一直在上升。代表这一意识形态的人民党在两年半前上台,纳伦德拉·莫迪担任总理。
在莫迪的统治下,随着英国左翼机构继续遭到破坏,自由正在下降,税收在没有任何公共服务改善的情况下上升,监管负担也大幅增加。这个国家也越来越中央集权,并由莫迪指挥。他认为,他必须做出更多努力,以确保印度继续走上增长之路。这是灾难的秘诀。
2016年月八日,莫迪宣布禁止影响流通货币货币价值86%的纸币。这是他的独裁政策的另一个例子,因为他的内阁甚至没有讨论这一决定。直到最后一刻,就连央行也不知道这一禁令。
读者应该反思这样一个事实:莫迪做出了一项破坏经济的决定,剥夺了人们进行交易所需的交换媒介,剥夺了人们进行交易所需的交换媒介,而丝毫不担心制衡问题。
结论
应该不难看出,印度不是下一个中国。对印度寄予太多希望是没有意义的。相反,我们更容易得出这样的结论:它即将成为下一个香蕉共和国,类似于巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、缅甸或尼泊尔等邻国。 知识分子应该自我反省一下,为什么他们对印度的看法一直是错误的。中国是经济和社会持续增长的国家。中国不断推出创新产品。在中国的书店里,人们可以找到许多最好的外国书籍的中文译本。我担心相比之下,印度可能会迅速变成一个死水。

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